Wednesday, December 28, 2016

An NCUA Premium Assessment... Another Forecasting Turkey From The Robusterians!

Spot the trend?
Some non-competency validated and unaccountable
robusticowboys at a certain unnamed regulatory agency (... "if you know whadda mean Barn"...) have been collaborating once again with the capital market specialists in adjacent cribicles to fashion a non-transparent future for we of lesser understanding. Their fruitcake forecasts and foolish flapdoodle comes at a "premium price" for credit unions! 

These boys and girls, who appear to have too little to do on a regular, daily basis, are using their OTR-sponsored play periods to invent some pretty bizarre, highly unusual, and mostly irrelevant trend lines for the NCUSIF equity ratio.   All released with a straight face! 
"The Great Robusterini"

Their future projections, based on lingerie logic [pretty flimsy!], give a whole new meaning to the concept of "regression" analysis - in this case "fabricated model parameters" to support their pre-conceived and consistently erroneous views of interest rates, economic markets, and reality.  They repeatedly assure their critics that they are not stand-up comics, but the doubt persists.

Spontaneous Robustion!
As an example, according to the latest ruminations of economists of the robusterian ilk, the typical turkey in America has increased in average weight from 13.2 lbs. in 1929 to an average weight of 30 lbs. [Source: The Economist] in 2016.  Based on this definitive, fully "r-squared" [as in "robust" squared] trend line,  the Robusterians will probably forecast that the average American turkey will weigh 300 lbs. by the end of this century, and may top 16,000 lbs. [8 tons a piece!] by Y3K!

The Real "Big Bird"!

Based on this robust forecast, turkeys - rather than the meek - may inherit the earth... and those turkeys are going to be very hungry and looking for trouble around Thanksgiving! Does your credit union have a plan for this threat to the safety and soundness of the "insurance fund"?

Additionally, the heads-with-point specialists have invented a correlation between rising turkey weights and...

 ... you guessed it,
   the NCUSIF equity ratio!!!

But stop being so critical, it can't be any worse than their historical forecasting methodology, which  has predicted... 
A perfect


24 tons of stuffed bird?
.... looks like any way we carve it up, we're going to be dealing with a bunch of NCUSIF economic "bird stuff" in 2017....  


An unjustified premium assessment, 
 NCUA senior staff, once again, flippin' Credit Unions the bird! 

1 comment:

tony costanzo said...

The NCUA is an independent agency of the federal government. That being said they must increase their budget every year to support their existence. OK so there are fewer credit unions to regulate. OK so there are fewer CAMEL 3, 4 or 5 credit unions in trouble. OK so there are fewer corporate credit unions to examine. The NCUA has no skin in the game. They collect from those that they regulate with contempt for those that they regulate. They answer to no one. The NCUA oxy-moron is called: Capital Market Specialist. They indeed are SPECIAL. They have been wrong 100% of the time on forecasting interest rates these past 10 years. At least they are consistent. Budget for increasing premium assessments each and every year going forward.