Everyone I ask always claims that they "do pretty well at the tables" on their Las Vegas trips. I still wonder how those fabulous hotels can be built if folks are all doing "pretty well at the tables"? Somehow that "analysis" doesn't seem to add up...
|What Are The Odds ?? |
"sport" of gambling,
most statistical analysis, interest rate risk measurement, and standard economic forecasting is some form of probability theory.
Probability theory attempts to measure the degree of certainty - or uncertainty - which should be assigned to a given estimate. How likely - or unlikely - is that forecast "to become true" ? How much confidence can one have that an analysis is valid? In gambling and games of chance, understanding "the odds" can help limit your losses or improve your chances of success. We all also use probability theory in our daily lives: "it's 50-50"; "it's a slam dunk"; "it's worth the risk":
"there's not a snowball's chance in..."
|Spin Doctors ??|
But much is at stake in any challenge to the
"all gnome-ing ones" from Big Blue. Putting "your cards on the table" can often become a "one-sided bet", a game of regulatory "roulette Russianne" - with a stacked deck and a rigged wheel of fortune !!
But whining aside, here's a probability question for you to pose to your examiner at your next exit interview...
Q: Out of the full universe of statistical possibilities, what is the probability that the only folks who know how to run a credit union have all ended up working at the NCUA?
A: The probability of that occurring is...
Q: Well then, what is the probability that no one at the NCUA knows how to run a credit union? (How did they learn?)
|Kinda' gives a whole new meaning to|
"risk-based exams", doesn't it!