Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Robust Balderdashery.....


If you haven't as yet discovered "The Economist" magazine, you might like to investigate this marvelous opportunity to meet and better understand the wider world - on a weekly basis.  Pair it with your hometown weekly newspaper... and there is little left you need to know about how the world works.....  

Couple of months back, "The E" ran a review of a new book by Leonard Mlodinow (must be from Wisconsin with a name like that!) called "Subliminal: How Your Unconscious Mind Rules Your Behavior."


Mlodinow, a theoretical physicist (I'm not quite sure what that is either), makes much in the book about how much of our lives are dominated by our subconscious mind; and that, "conscious reasoning" makes up a comparatively small part of the activity in our brain."  If you think about it, that certainly makes a lot of sense.  Actually if you don't think about it, it makes even more sense.  So much of our daily lives are truly on "automatic pilot"....



But my favorite part of Mr. Mlodinow's musings
are his views on modern economics, particularly economic modeling.  "He notes that economic models are built "on the assumption that people make decisions... by consciously weighing the relevant factors", whereas the psychological research suggests that, most of the time, people do no such thing. Instead we act on the basis of simple unconscious rules that can sometimes produce completely irrational results."


Some real Fruit Loops!
Don't know what your experience is with your fellow human beings; but mine is that rather than being the exception, irrationality is quite often the norm!  Check out that other important weekly periodical - your hometown newspaper - for real life examples galore!  Your neighbors often go berserk: and quite frequently, can be found out there running amok, can't they!


Fruits and nuts of their labors...
Which is why "the science of economic modeling" [an idea/phrase of complete "robust"** silliness] continues to so reliably amuse, embarrass, betray, and mislead this Country. Economic robusterians*, the repeat offenders in the modeling shell game, always start out their forecastications with a straight face and with one simple axiom: 


"Assume a perfect world...."

[We do so at our peril!]



* "robusterians" - Definition:  writers of "robust"** financial                                     forcastications.

** "robust" - Definition: meaning "written by an idiot".