Friday, March 27, 2015

Examining An Average Risk...



Next career goal: the NCUA?
Was arguing (their terminology) / discussing (my terminology) economic modeling and interest rate forecasting with a couple of Janet Yellen/Ben Bernanke wannabe-type examiners the other day.


Sure I'm calm...!
The capital market specialists (the real"capital punishment"!) sensed that I had little faith in their forecasts and analyses.  Perhaps it was the hysterical hair-pulling, the rolling wildness in the eyes, or the profuse foaming from the mouth which betrayed my calm demeanor. Actually my "faith" in their grasp of economics and, more particularly, their grasp of reality was far less than little.... 
Gave them very
"high ratings"!

It has never concerned me too much when a person doesn't understand something; because, at heart, life is about learning new things from new experiences... and hopefully, we all do so everyday! "Not knowing" is not where problems generally arise.  Problems most frequently arise from folks - "specialist" types - who are dead-certain in their "wisdom", confirmed in their understanding - the "know it all", the self-assured fool, who lacks the gene for listening.

Our "argument / discussion" centered around the value of statistical averages, regression analyses, Monte Carlo stimulations (sp?) - "the basic" modeling sort of stuff.  If asked, I might have confessed that I wasn't (within several standard deviations!) always real sure what all that "stuff" really meant. But of course, they were more interested in reveling in their own "intelligence" than in exposing my "ignirance" .... guess you know the type.


"Just press 2 & 4..."

Anyway, we parted on less than amicable terms - much less to be exact.  As the elevator door was closing, wanting to make sure they knew "where to go"; I told them that the parking deck entrance was located on the third floor; and that, if they would press button two and button four that "on average" they would get there.

I haven't really bothered to check on them since.  Do you think I should....?


Nah, I didn't think so either....

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

With less sand in the hour glass, you should limit your time with people that concern themselves with average things.

Let them know you are going to do what is in the best interest of your membership. Willing to bet once the situation changes you will change your asset/liability mix and all their analysis becomes worthless.

Piss poor management has caused more losses to the NCUSIF, than all the regression analyses has ever saved.

Anonymous said...

And where are the clowns? Quick send in the clowns.

Don't bother, they're here.

Anonymous said...

Jim,
My CFO and I really enjoyed your post this morning. We both laughed out loud at the evelator comments. By the way, was the capital market specialist either Ron G. or Martin C.?
Georgia Birddog

Jim Blaine said...

Think our staff affectionately calls them the "Chipmunks"...