Fresh Air....

Ya Reckon...!?

THE POLITICS OF 2016 ?

Capital Markets Special-ist...

One, of course, does not expect folks of a regulatory mindset to be either interesting or entertaining as public speakers; and the lead-off econo-prattler did not disappoint. Many in the audience bowed their heads and wished they were somewhere else - perhaps a funeral. 


The second presenter was introduced as their capital markets "guru". Assume they called him a guru because they weren't sure how to spell charlatan, mountebank, pettifogger or punchinello, but....

Mike Tyson On Robusterian Quantitative Analysis, Capital Planning And Stress Testing...

Iraq/Afghan, Healthcare, 
Fan/Fred, Katrina,
 TBTF, QE3, RBC1...

Sir Lawrence Freedman has a new book out called "Strategy:  A History" which was recently reviewed in the Financial Times.  The review uses the following quote from "bad-to-the-bone" boxer Mike Tyson  to sum up the core insight from the book - "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth."

There might be an important word of caution, perhaps even of enlightenment, in Mr. Tyson's "realest of real worlds" wisdom for all our "robustly" faithful, Monday morning quarter-backs - those in-the-end, unaccountable armchair strategists. 

Here's the gist of the review...

Climbing Up The Wall....

"Make The Wall Great Again!"

Been interesting of course to watch The Great Debates of this political season, it brings to mind the famous Alfred Hitchcock movie - Psycho! 

      [very scary!]

One idea consistently put forth by Donald Trump is the proposition that the U.S. build a 10-foot wall along our Southern border to solve our "immigration problem".  And, for good measure, Mr. Trump proposes that Mexico be required to both build and pay for the wall.  

Up and Down.

Mr. Trump cites The Great Wall of China as the historical example supporting his opinion.

There appear to be four problems with Mr. Trump's proposal:


1) If the wall is built by Mexicans, wouldn't that be just another example of undocumented aliens taking American jobs?

Up and Over!

2) If  the folks in Mexico are smart enough to build a 10-foot wall, 1600 miles long; aren't they smart enough to manufacture 12-foot ladders?

Now What?

3) How far out into the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean will the wall be extended?

"From $369+tax...!"

4) How much is the airfare from Mexico City to Canada? Bet Mexicans know how to walk south as well as north.... 

Beau Jolly ....

"At first, I did not care for the wine,
 but it improved after a few bottles."

The Cat's Me "Ow" !!! ....

Wait a minute, come back here!
What did you say?

" Never corner anything meaner than you are."

Nothing Matches Experience..

"Experience" often comes
without instructions!

" Good judgment comes from experience;

 most experience comes from bad judgment."

The Moral Of The Story...

The Maine Idea!

"The right way is not always the popular and easy way.  Standing for right when it is unpopular is a true test of moral character."

- Senator Margaret Chase Smith (R-Me.)

Senator Smith also said...

A Refreshing Look At Risk....

Big Ben !

Spent some time a couple of months back at a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (FRBA) sponsored Financial Markets Conference. Know most of you will find it highly unlikely or hilarious, but it was quite an enlightening experience.  

Had some legendary folks in economics in attendance, including Ben Bernanke. Amazingly security was very light; guess no one in his right mind would knowingly try to "break into" an economics conference; and the last group you would ever want to hold hostage would be a group of economic theorists (talk about cruel and unusual punishment !).

There is certainly a profound world of difference between listening to some seriously serious folks discuss stress testing, interest rate risk, and the issues surrounding the future regulation of the financial industry, and in what most credit unions hear from our examiners.  The chief differences are the readily expressed uncertainty by the experts as to the best way forward for regulation in this difficult economic environment; the readily acknowledged weaknesses, flaws, and limitations in all the standard economic risk measurement models; and the readily expressed need for regulatory humility and an openness to dialogue in the face of a rapidly changing economic risk
environment. Highly encouraging, very refreshing !! 

Risk Analysis & Calibration - 
Duke Street Approach !!

Much different from the "tone and tenor" in the credit union regulatory space.

Did hear one anecdote about the major bank boss who, after the financial collapse of 2008,
stormed into his economic/capital markets division and fired the whole group outright.

When they expressed shock and surprise, he pointed out...