Monday, April 06, 2015

Go Duke... !!


DOOK !!!


When you say !!! GO DUKE !!! today, guess most folks are thinking basketball, the Final Four, or Krysrhu.... Khachf.... Kzyreski.... or whatever the coach's name is....


But the cognoscenti of robusterian quantalytics know that Duke is as good off the court as it is on the court when it comes to statistics.  

Thought you might like to see a brief primer  on forecasting from Dr. Robert Nau from the Duke Fuqua Schoool of Business.  Any professor who leads with the following quote must be taken seriously:


"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer."
- Kehlog Aldbran


In case you haven't got time before the game, here are the key plays:

  Forecasting can take many forms - staring into crystal balls or bowls of tea leaves, combining the opinion of experts,...

  "If you live by the crystal ball, you end up eating broken glass."


*  "Intrinsic risk - This doesn't necessarily mean the original model was "wrong", but merely that it was too simplistic or under-informed."

* "Parameter risk - No pattern really stays the same forever, which is known as the "blur of history" problem."

*  "Model risk - Is the risk of choosing the wrong model, i.e., making the wrong assumptions about whether or how the future will resemble the past.  This is usually the most serious of forecast error... because every model assumes itself to be correct."


"There is no magic formula."

           ... the DEVILS* are in the details !!!

( Y'know the "K-factors" - judgment, execution, 
and practical, "on-court" experience!!!)

!!! GO DUKE !!!

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jimbolinski. You discuss intrinsic risk, parameter risk and model risk. However, you fail to even mention the most important one---Interest Rate Risk!

GO BADGERS!

Jim Blaine said...

Thought most folks felt like there was usually more than enough "badgering" going on with this blog... so I decided to side up with the DEVIL this round!

"Every basketball fan for himself and may the DEVILS take the hindmost..."

Anonymous said...

Understood. After your Easter Sunday posts you must have felt compelled to level the playing field. Diablo will be pleased.

Jim Blaine said...

Guess it's all downhell from here....

Anonymous said...

It will surly be downhell once the blog starts reporting on the increase in NCUSIF!

Just a license for NCUA to steal from members!

Jim Blaine said...

"Surly" is surely the right word!!!!!

Jim Blaine said...

For those of you following the "hellfire and brimstone" comment war on the 3/26/2015 post ("CU Marketeering...SOS"), would like to point out that Thorstein Veblen was from Wisconsin. So, yet another reason to say...

!!! GO DUKE !!!