Friday, January 16, 2015

RBC #2: Swan Song At NCUA…?




Well, RBC #2 has arrived - a detailed, 450-page admission of regulatory malfeasance, wrapped in a stark, self-confession of first degree professional ineptitude.  No regrets expressed, no apologies offered.  


What elephant?
I take it that the credit union community should feel grateful to the NCUA for finally acting responsibly. And grateful that we must now squander countless additional, unproductive hours and waste millions more of our members hard-earned dollars to force the Agency to abide by the law.  There is an underlying problem here, there is an elephant-in-the-room which needs to be addressed - and addressed now.


Swan Song?
Nassim Taleb, the world famous economist and author, reached fame for his early, dead-on prediction of the 2008 financial collapse.  In his classic bestseller, The Black Swan, Taleb presents his recommendations on changes we must make to avoid a repeat of the financial market collapse in America. He entitled his advice:  

"The Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society"
(I swear I didn't make this up!!!)


Among these points are standards like eliminate "Too Big To Fail"; the problems surrounding incentive pay, federal government bailouts, and moral hazard; and the GSE-type idiocy where profits are privatized and losses are dumped on the society at-large.

But one point in particular among the "Ten Principles" addressed the problem of accountability for those people responsible for the collapse. 

Mr. Taleb obviously crafted "Principle # 3" with the NCUA RBC debacle in mind... 

…AND "CRASHED IT"
 BIG TIME !!!
"#3:  PEOPLE WHO WERE DRIVING A BUS BLINDFOLDED (AND CRASHED IT) SHOULD NEVER BE GIVEN A NEW BUS."

"The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organizations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with  the failure of the system in 2008.  It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in their ability to get us out of this mess. It is also irresponsible to listen to "risk experts" still promoting their measurements, which failed us (such as Value-at-Risk). Find the smart people whose hands are clean."

Now consider where we are on RBC #1/#2:

DOES NCUA HAVE THE SMART PEOPLE?
AND ARE THEIR HANDS CLEAN?

(You're footing the bill...)


3 comments:

Jim Blaine said...

Rule #6 in the Ten Principles of the Black Swan Robust Society also probably applies:

Rule #6: Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning label.

Anonymous said...

Thursday's NCUA Board Meeting was clearly good entertainment. Three board members, three separate statements, a panel of programed staff careful not to misspeak and enough paper passed out to lay a path to the steps of Congress from NCUA back and forth 1,775 times.

The Chairman begins with her justification as to why she believes,as Queen, she knows what is best for her subjects.

McWatters, lays out his research and provides the food for thought that maybe the Queen is wrong and NCUA is not allowed by law to do what she wants. He is like the beef between two slices of thin bread.

Up next is the one the industry thought was to be their shining knight. Vice Chairman Metsger. His designated job, slay the beef boy with sharp words. Again, as in the past, he failed miserably.

I am certain there will be more such entertaining meetings as it is clear the gauntlet has been thrown.

It's time to take this to the next level. The trades must follow the paper path to Congress and urge the hearings that are necessary to stop this bureaucratic nightmare.

Anonymous said...

"If you can't dazzle them with your foot-work, bury them in bullshit" - sage advise and thoroughly practiced at NCUA.