Monday, November 03, 2014

Interest Rate Risk (IRR): Investing In The Future...




A little blurb of enlightenment from a recent (10/30/2014) WSJ article:  "Bad Bets Batter Manager's Fortress".

"The $3 billion Fortress Macro Fund, which Mr. Michael Novogratz [his friends call him Novo!] launched in 2002, has lost more than 9% so far this year, with half of that drop coming this month."

"Mr. Novogratz's main fund is among those that expected Treasury prices to slump this year, as the economy firmed and investors anticipated higher rates.  Instead, prices have climbed [and T-Bill yields have declined!]"


"We got run over," Mr. Novogratz said.

Pretty bad when a sophisticated investor gets "run over" in the market, in the real world where you do pay a severe price for "getting it wrong" (not like the Duke St./Disneyland fantasy fiction, where no one is accountable!).

Wonder who Novo's been getting his advice from on interest rates this year?  You don't think there's any chance it was from....


.... nah, that's way too bizarre a thought!

UPDATE ON SOARING RATES:
T -Bills
                                                                 11/2/2014
                     1/2/2014:     5-yr - 1.72%            1.61%
                      10-yr - 3.00%             2.33%
                      30-yr - 3.92%             3.05%

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope we all live long enough to see the Robust NCUA prediction of interest rates soaring!

Anonymous said...

We may not live long enough to see it, but we will be ready.

Anonymous said...

That's NCUAs problem they lack fire!

It's always ready ,ready, ready, ready,....occasionally an aim, aim, aim, aim,.....

Never any FIRE.... we don't need to wait on NCUA to die... just shovel up some dirt on the carcass.

Anonymous said...

NCUA does not lack fire! The problem is that every time they do fire they shoot themselves in the foot.

Jim Blaine said...

Think it hits a little higher...