It's Official ! NCUA Affirms Fowl Economic Interest Rate Forecast...Part I

 NCUA Robusterian reports
are full of stochaste !!

The second-quarter, economic forecasts from the robusterians over at the NCUA have just hit the streets; and, for the 1,786,176,581 potential CU members in the U.S. (as of the 3/31/2014, NCUA Call Report) there is some particularly frightening news...

 NCUA's General Counsel has reviewed and affirmed these forecasts!

This quarter's NCUA report regurgitates the ever-present obsession of the Duke Street gnomes with "interest rate risk". Much like your younger, teenage children with the issue of sex; "the first string" economic team over at the NCUA still believes that they were the first credit union

"That's right, a stork dropped
y'all down the chimney..." 

people to discover the concept of interest rate risk. (And hope to share a future Nobel Prize with Al Gore.)

And, much like the opinions of your teenagers, the "robutsies" are quite sure that you are neither aware of, nor familiar with, the topic - let alone having ever "practiced" it! (And, even if you have "tried it a time or two"; your efforts have not been "fully robust", nor "sufficiently granular"!)

NCUA's actual forecast as to interest rate risk is that...

Chicken Little:
A nugget of truth?

 ..."Chicken Little was right!" - interest rates are poised to surge, resulting in the end of the world.  NCUA's 2014 "The End of the World Is Near!" view is consistent with their 2013 forecast and their 2012 forecast, and their 2011 forecast, and their 2010... and at some point in time their forecast will perhaps be accurate. (As they say, even a broken cuckoo clock is right twice a day!)

Cute, sophomoric... 
Can't drive, but sure can
 "honk the horn"!

Many folks have tried to point out to the NCUA robusterians that their forecasts are less than useful if a timeline is not included, let alone the noticeable absence of any hint of how soon, how far, and how fast interest rates will advance. Predicting that interest rates will rise is cute and sophomoric, but the "when, where and how" requires much greater experience, talent, and a good bit more humility... something's missing in these forecasts - (take your pick!)

Say What?
 Say When ! 

Future Interest Rates? 

HONK! HONK! HONK!HONK! 
HONK! HONK! HONK! 
HONK! HONK! 
HONK!
 HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!HONK!