Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Robust Swaggers.... Irrational Expectations.



Off their rocker..
"It should be clear that among the causes of the recent financial crisis was an unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies, and the techniques of modern finance. 

That faith was stoked in part by the huge financial rewards that enabled the extremes of borrowing, the economic imbalances, and the pretenses and assurances of the credit rating agencies to persist too long."

"All the seeming mathematical precision that was brought to investment, all the complicated new products, including the explosion of derivatives, that were intended to diffuse and minimize risk, did not work as had been claimed.  Instead...." 


(....you know the rest of the story.)

- Paul Volcker
[former Federal Reserve Chair]
"Financial Reform: Unfinished Business"
The NY Review of Books



Guess who has now belatedly discovered and adopted, with a vengeance,  these so visibly and painfully discredited practices...


Better never than late ???


* SWAG - Stochastic Wild Ass Guessers
[also affectionately referred to as "robusterians".]

2 comments:

Greg said...

Too funny. As usual a day (maybe years) and a dollar (billions) short.

Anonymous said...

300 basis points instantaneous rate shock up. Is the NCUA serious? Hello, NCUA. The 10 year closed at 2.12% on 8-19-2015. Last year it was 2.40% Might the NCUA tell us when if ever in our life we might see this 300 basis points instantaneous rate shock up? With all the Capital Market Specialists on the NCUA payroll surely the Specialists must be able to recognize the date certain. Debbie says the NCUA knows best for our credit union members. It seems to follow the Capital Market Specialists (CMS) know best for our credit union ALM/CFO folks. Come on now CMS -either give it up or shut it up.